Rounding behaviour of professional macro-forecasters

The rounding of point forecasts CPI inflation and the unemployment rate by U.S. Professional Forecasters is modest. There little evidence that are rounded to a greater extent in response higher perceived uncertainty surrounding future outcomes. clear probability decline rounded: over half forecast probabilities current quarter multiples ten. It found here these correlates with worse accuracy, although it also note (less accurate) forecasters might round more as opposed degree per se worsening accuracy. By simulating loss from for set efficient forecasters, demonstrated explanation respondents otherwise implausible, contribution minor importance.